Estimation of Geomagnetic Storm of Solar Cycle 24 Based on Solar Wind and Magnetic Field Parameters

EasyChair Preprint no. 6711

Abstract

Geomagnetic storms are important phenomena in space weather research and also one of the parameters provided in the LAPAN space weather service, SWIFtS (Space Weather Information and Forecast Service). Some of geomagnetic storm prediction models have been developed. In 2017, a geomagnetic storm model was developed based on the behavior of the solar wind parameters and the Bz (-) interplanetary magnetic field. Data during 1996-2006 are used to develop the model. In this paper, we estimate the geomagnetic storms event during 2007-2020 by using a model based on the input of a combination between interplanetary magnetic field behavior towards the south (Bz (-)), solar wind density (NSW) namely PBz-Nsw and a geomagnetic storm model. A geomagnetic storm model based on input the behavior of the interplanetary magnetic field towards the south (Bz (-)), the density (NSW) and speed of the solar wind (VSW), namely PTotal. The analysis results obtained that the Dst*(PTotal) model has a slight advantage in accuracy. This result can be seen from the average deviation value between Dst data and Dst geomagnetic storm model output (PBz-Nsw) that is 46.7% and the average deviation between Dst data and Dst geomagnetic storm model output (PTotal) is -29.4%. Likewise, the mean value of the data gap time and the gap time output of the geomagnetic storm model (T(PBz-Nsw)) is 73.7% and the average value of the data gap time and the gap time output of the geomagnetic storm model (T(PTotal)) is 2.4%. For shortly, in the total the intensity of the geomagnetic storm is more suitable/better using the Dst*(PTotal) model which is a superposition parameter of the speed and density of the solar wind, because it has a smaller deviation between the data and the model output.

Keyphrases: geomagnetic storm, Interplanetary magnetic field, solar wind parameter, space weather

@Booklet{EasyChair:6711,
  author = {Anwar Santoso and Dyah Rahayu Martiningrum},
  title = {Estimation of Geomagnetic Storm of Solar Cycle 24 Based on Solar Wind and Magnetic Field Parameters},
  howpublished = {EasyChair Preprint no. 6711},

  year = {EasyChair, 2021}}