Import and Export Risk of Urban Public Transportation System Under COVID Scenario

EasyChair Preprint no. 9740

Abstract

This study proposed an import and export risk evaluation method of public transportation system under COVID. The vulnerability of public transportation system under COVID period has attracted considerable attention after the outbreak of COVID. Commuters enter into and exit from public transportation system all the time, and some of these commuters may be infectors. Hence different bus station possesses different import risk or export risk levels. The evaluation of the two risks levels is crucial for the transportation management design to reduce the infection risk of the whole society. Import risk and export risk evaluation models are developed considering the cumulative contact durations among commuters. The sensitivity analysis is implemented by considering the bus service frequencies and the demand levels. Both micro and macro prevention and control strategies are proposed to reduce infection risk in public transportation system: these control strategies include the adjusting of servicing frequency and the stop closure. The SEIR model is introduced into the public network to describe the propagation process of each station, and the result shows infection risk of public transportation is reducing significantly. It is found that quantitatively evaluate the risk can accurately guide to design of public transportation epidemic prevention and control strategies.

Keyphrases: COVID, Import risk and export risk, prevention and control strategy, public transportation network, SEIR model, sensitivity analysis

@Booklet{EasyChair:9740,
  author = {Yuyan Ying and Hongsheng Qi},
  title = {Import and Export Risk of Urban Public Transportation System Under COVID Scenario},
  howpublished = {EasyChair Preprint no. 9740},

  year = {EasyChair, 2023}}